Georgia

Moving trend analysis shows which swing states could shift redder during 2024 election

By Sam Sachs, WSBTV.com
By Sam Sachs, WSBTV.com

GEORGIA — Just weeks away from a presidential election, Realtor.com put out a new analysis of moving trends to see which swing states might shift redder in 2024.

According to the real estate company’s study, Georgia is one of three swing states that could shift more red as the election unfolds.

However, the company’s analyst said the actual impact of movers on elections is not set in stone.

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“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape, " said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”

For the current political season, nine states overall appear to be shifting bluer, according to the Realtor.com analysis, while 22 show a shift turning more red.

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Among swing states for the election year, Realtor.com said Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina could shift more red, while Nevada and Wisconsin could shift more blue.

Michigan and Pennsylvania, also on the board for swing states, are politically up in the air, with Realtor.com saying the mixed population shifts don’t show a clear direction for local electorates.

Outside of the swing states, Realtor.com’s analysis said several red and blue states that are trending opposite directions from the current status quo, though that’s not to say they’ll be flipping their overall trends, politically.

Those states are:

  • Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon and Washington— could trend redder
  • Three red states—Alaska, Florida and Ohio— could shift bluer

Separately, multiple states are getting deeper into the red or blue. Those states are:

  • Four blue states—Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia and Maine—could trend bluer
  • 12 red states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming— could trend redder

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